Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,285$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(368 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $203$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(40.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{204.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 87.3)}}\) (asimptote \(204.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,529$ on 2020-09-08

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,837$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,161.9}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(34,161.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,018$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(921 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(131.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,959.2}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,959.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,119$ on 2020-09-08

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $280,153$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{246,034.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(246,034.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,563$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,732.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(34,732.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,789$ on 2020-09-08

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,327,009$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.98 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,054,808.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 148.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,054,808.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $189,653$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.94 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{174,203.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 72.1)}}\) (asimptote \(174,203.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,778,245$ on 2020-09-08

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $354,932$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(9.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{308,616.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 58.9)}}\) (asimptote \(308,616.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,675$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(107.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,712.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(40,712.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $311,430$ on 2020-09-08

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $85,707$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,949.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.4)}}\) (asimptote \(85,949.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,838$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(95.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,727.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,727.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $79,869$ on 2020-09-08

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $254,957$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(8.39 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(111.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{207,983.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(207,983.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,336$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(119.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,025.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,025.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,242$ on 2020-09-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Singapore recovered 97%
Chad recovered 90%
Mauritania recovered 89%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 84%
Uzbekistan recovered 76%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 74%
Egypt recovered 73%
Armenia recovered 72%
Guatemala recovered 69%
Vietnam recovered 69%
Afghanistan recovered 69%
Saudi Arabia recovered 68%
Australia recovered 68%
South Africa recovered 67%
Japan recovered 51%
Malta recovered 49%
Korea, South recovered 44%
Bolivia recovered 34%
Cuba recovered 33%
Russia recovered 32%
Dominican Republic recovered 30%
Colombia recovered 29%
Poland recovered 28%
Malawi recovered 21%
El Salvador recovered 21%
Nepal recovered 19%
Bangladesh recovered 16%
Guyana recovered 9%
Maldives recovered 8%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $90,087$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.38 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,837.3}{1 + 10^{-0.085 (t - 15.4)}}\) (asimptote \(84,837.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,733$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(7.56 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,684.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,684.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $422$ on 2020-09-08

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,091$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(-1.28 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,225.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 115.1)}}\) (asimptote \(54,225.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.06 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(26.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $603$ on 2020-09-08

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,045$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(369 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(86.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{927.2}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(927.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $79$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(46.8 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(144.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74.7}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 15.7)}}\) (asimptote \(74.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-09-08

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,165$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(653 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,813.3}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 90.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,813.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $160$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(23.7 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{156.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 76.9)}}\) (asimptote \(156.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $324$ on 2020-09-08