Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,285$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(368 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $203$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(40.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{204.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 87.3)}}\) (asimptote \(204.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,529$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $44,837$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,161.9}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(34,161.9\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,018$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(921 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(131.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,959.2}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,959.2\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,119$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $280,153$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{246,034.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(246,034.2\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,563$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,732.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(34,732.7\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,789$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,327,009$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.98 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,054,808.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 148.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,054,808.7\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $189,653$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.94 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{174,203.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 72.1)}}\) (asimptote \(174,203.0\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,778,245$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $354,932$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(9.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{308,616.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 58.9)}}\) (asimptote \(308,616.8\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,675$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(107.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,712.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(40,712.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $311,430$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $85,707$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,949.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.4)}}\) (asimptote \(85,949.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,838$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(95.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,727.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,727.7\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $79,869$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $254,957$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(8.39 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(111.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{207,983.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(207,983.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,336$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(119.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,025.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,025.0\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,242$ on 2020-09-08